Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the presidential race through a letter posted on his social media account, X. Particularly following the backlash from campaign donors after the CNN Presidential Debate on the night of June 27 and facing intense public pressure to withdraw from the presidential race, President Biden has stated that he will support Vice President Harris as the candidate for his party in the election.
From August 19-22, nearly 4,000 delegates will gather at the Democratic National Convention (DNC) in Chicago. Biden had won more than 3,800 of these delegates in his party’s primaries, but now all of these delegates will be freed to vote for whomever they choose. To secure the nomination, a candidate needs to obtain 1,986 delegates.
In an op-ed I wrote in March 2024, I mentioned that Biden might withdraw from the presidential race and that Kamala Harris, Michelle Obama, and Gavin Newsom were strong contenders for the Democratic nomination. I also noted that such a scenario could be more challenging for the Republican candidate, Donald Trump.
Currently, over 530 delegates have pledged their support for Harris following Biden’s withdrawal. Key Democratic figures, such as Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, Senators Tim Kaine and Tammy Baldwin, along with prominent campaign donors, view Vice President Kamala Harris as the leading candidate. Biden and Harris spearheaded a major campaign committee in the second quarter, raising $270 million. Should Harris become the presidential nominee, it is anticipated that her access to campaign funds will remain unaffected.
As of June 30, the Biden-Harris campaign committee has $96 million in important funds. This money belongs to the Biden-Harris campaign, meaning only Biden and Harris can control it. If someone other than Harris is nominated, the Biden-Harris campaign could transfer this $96 million to a federal super PAC.
Additionally, according to FEC rules, Biden’s campaign can transfer up to $32 million to the Democratic National Committee (DNC), and these funds can be spent in coordination with the new candidate’s campaign.
According to the Leadership Now Project, federal contribution limits restrict transfers between candidates to $2,000 per election. Therefore, if someone other than Harris is selected as the presidential candidate, the campaign would need to return the funds to donors, which could complicate matters.
Kamala Harris’s strengths extend beyond the complex management of campaign funds, which could also lead to legal challenges from Republicans. At 59, Harris has substantial campaign experience from 2020 and has been deeply involved in policy work as Vice President. Her contributions to significant Democratic legislation, such as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors for America Act (CHIPS), are noteworthy. Her advocacy for abortion rights and efforts in states like Wisconsin, Arizona, and Florida have been particularly motivating for Democratic voters and women
As a Black and South Asian woman, Harris also brings a unique ethnic background. If she becomes the presidential nominee, she could be seen as a younger and more charismatic alternative to the 78-year-old Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump, potentially exciting many Democratic voters.
One of Kamala Harris’s main disadvantages is that all criticisms aimed at the Biden administration will also be directed at her, as she would be seen as a continuation of the current administration. This could be problematic for Democrats seeking change and dissatisfied with the status quo. Additionally, some polls show Harris might lag behind even Biden, raising concerns about her future prospects.
There may also be delegates who fear losing votes from voters unwilling to support a Black female candidate. To address this, Harris might need to announce her vice-presidential running mate before the Democratic National Convention. Gavin Newsom could be a strong choice to complement her and address any perceived gaps, assuming he does not seek the presidential nomination himself.
For the U.S. establishment, the 2024 presidential election is of paramount importance, given the stakes of potentially leaving the country’s future in the hands of someone like Trump. The U.S. aims to strengthen its position globally while avoiding direct conflict with China. The prolonged Ukraine-Russia conflict keeps Russia, a potential Chinese ally, occupied, and helps maintain European and NATO alignment with the U.S. Significant steps have been taken under Biden in this regard, but a Trump presidency could introduce uncertainties that might jeopardize these plans. Trump’s actions, particularly if he weakens support for Ukraine or targets NATO and other allies, could diminish U.S. global power against China.
In this context, it is vital for the U.S. establishment to select a candidate capable of securing victory. Although Kamala Harris might rally some supporters, particularly in the wake of Biden’s withdrawal, her lower popularity in certain polls compared to Biden and her potential vulnerabilities against Trump—who could portray Harris as a continuation of Biden’s policies—pose significant challenges. As I noted in December 2023, a more compelling candidate might be a well-known figure from outside Biden’s era, such as Michelle Obama. The hesitation of prominent figures like Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, and Chuck Schumer to quickly endorse Harris suggests that alternative options are being explored.
This article originally appeared in the opinion section of the Middle East Monitor.