As the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election approaches, the competition between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump keeps the political arena highly charged. Polls show both candidates with close vote shares, and the success of each campaign will depend on effectively galvanizing their base, convincing undecided voters, and winning swing states. States like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin will once again play a decisive role in determining the election outcome.
Kamala Harris’s campaign began with an emphasis on diversity and inclusion. During her campaign rallies, Harris highlighted the theme of “freedom” in relation to issues such as gun safety, LGBT rights, and access to abortion. She has also made the economic challenges of the middle class, housing affordability, and illegal immigration key topics of her campaign’s messaging.
Minorities, women, and young voters constitute the primary target audience of Harris’s campaign. These demographic groups are vital to the Democratic Party’s base, and Harris’s presence as a candidate who is both a woman and of Afro-Asian descent has the potential to directly mobilize these groups. However, one of the biggest challenges Harris’s campaigns will face is the need to shift further left to gain the support of the progressive wing, which may alienate centrist voters with rhetoric tailored to this demographic. This is especially critical because it already seems highly unlikely that these groups would vote for Trump. This dynamic represents one of the most critical aspects of Harris’s campaign, as she must also strike a balance between the progressive and centrist wings within her party.
In this context, the selection of Tim Walz as Harris’s vice-presidential running mate plays a significant role in the campaign strategy. Walz’s appeal to rural voters is especially important in an election where the rural-urban divide will be a key factor. The Midwest has been a crucial battleground in recent elections, with narrow margins often determining the outcome. Walz’s presence is a strategically important move to appeal to voters in this region. His background as a teacher, ex-football coach, and service in the National Guard resonates with mid-West voters who value public service and community involvement. However, given that Walz’s national profile is relatively low, the Democratic campaign will need to allocate significant resources to raise his visibility on the national stage.
A major hurdle for Harris in this endeavor will be to separate herself from the criticisms faced by the Biden administration. In particular, the critiques targeting her approach to immigration and border security may posesignificant challenges in her presidential campaign. In this context, her reference to her past career during a rally in Arizona—where she mentioned her role as the state’s Attorney General and her pursuit of international gangs and human traffickers—could be impactful. By acknowledging that the country’s immigration system is broken while emphasizing that strong border security and a pathway to earned citizenship are the solutions, Harris might appeal to undecided voters who are concerned about illegal immigration.
Another issue the Democrats need to address is the situation in Gaza. According to research by Ryan Burge, 83.7% of Muslim voters supported Biden in the 2020 Presidential Election, along with a significant majority of Jewish voters, 69.9% of whom also chose Biden. In this context, as the humanitarian crisis in Gaza escalates and protests against the Biden administration’s role in the conflict grow louder at universities and rallies, it is crucial for Harris to strike a balance on this issue for the success of her campaign.
On the other hand, Donald Trump, who claims to represent the “forgotten” segments of America, offers a strong and clear message, particularly on issues like the economy, immigration, and national security. The decisions Trump made during his presidency regarding the economy and national security garnered significant support among business circles and conservative voters. This gives Trump a substantial advantage during periods of heightened economic concerns.
By portraying himself as someone “targeted” by the media, Trump successfully garners the support of voters who distrust mainstream media. Additionally, his active presence on social media and his stance against traditional media allow him to communicate his messages directly to voters. In this context, it’s important not to overlook the support he receives from devoted social media followers and influential figures like Elon Musk on platforms such as X.
Trump proved in the 2016 and 2020 elections that he possesses a loyal and active voter base. However, while this base is loyal, it also poses a challenge in general elections. Trump’s harsh rhetoric and his sometimes-humorous remarks about his opponent’s ethnic background, along with his legal battles, make it difficult for him to extend his appeal beyond his core supporters. This polarization could be a significant disadvantage in an election where attracting independent and swing voters is crucial.
Trump’s choice of JD Vance as his running mate is a strategic move aimed at solidifying his influence among rural voters, particularly in the Rust Belt states, which were key to his 2016 victory. Vance’s background and message resonate with rural Americans, but his association with the more extreme elements of the Republican Party may limit his appeal to moderate and independent voters.
In the upcoming election, expected to see historic voter turnout, the key to victory will hinge on securing swing states.Harris and Walz aim to mobilize urban voters and, with Walz’s appeal, rural voters as well. Conversely, Trump and Vance must consolidate their base and recapture areas that leaned towards Biden in 2020. The Democrats, particularlyHarris-Walz, hold an edge with independents due to their complementary appeal, unlike Trump-Vance.
The challenge now for Democrats is to energize their diverse base without sidelining centrists, while Republicans need to sustain their core supporters’ enthusiasm amidst Trump’s divisive rhetoric.
This article originally appeared in the opinion section of the Middle East Monitor.