The 2024 U.S. Presidential Election will not only be a choice between candidates but also a referendum testing the future of American democracy, the justice system, and the limits of societal polarization.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump was found guilty by a jury on all 34 charges against him in the “hush money” case. The sentencing hearing, where Trump’s penalty will be announced, is scheduled for July 11. Theoretically, Trump could face up to $170,000 in fines and 136 years in prison if convicted. However, considering Trump’s age and the fact that the charges are classified as minor offences (Class E), it seems unlikely that he will serve time in prison.
In the United States, while individuals convicted of certain crimes are barred from holding some public offices, there is no such restriction for presidential candidacy. This situation means that Trump’s legal troubles will not prevent him from running for president. In this context, the ongoing process is significant not only for Trump’s political career but also for testing the American legal system and democratic values. It raises questions about equality before the law and justice, exposing a potential double standard that benefits those in power.
Trump’s ability to maintain political viability despite his legal convictions is also a phenomenon that warrants examination.
Trump’s response to the charges against him and his rhetoric creates a sense of victimhood among his supporters, thereby strengthening his political charisma and leadership claims. His campaign donation site crashed due to increased traffic immediately after his indictment, highlighting the intense mobilization and loyalty of his supporters. In April, when the court trial began, Trump’s campaign donations increased by $10.5 million compared to the previous month, surpassing $76 million. This surge is a significant indicator of the dedication and support he continues to receive from his base.
Against this backdrop, Trump’s legal troubles demonstrate his ability to effectively play the victim card in the political arena, allowing him to strengthen his populist rhetoric.
His supporters believe that Trump lost the 2020 election due to fraud and see a connection between the legal processes he faced before the 2024 Presidential election and his policies that challenged political norms during his presidency. The former president and his loyal followers argue that all these legal proceedings are part of a strategy orchestrated by a deep state structure to prevent Trump from returning to power, claiming that his policies unsettled the “globalists.”
An ABC News-Ipsos poll revealed that 80% of Trump supporters would continue to support him even if he were convicted of a serious crime in this case. Trump’s connection with his supporters is reinforced not only by ideological reasons but also by an emotional bond. His social media messages, often posted regardless of the time difference and containing grammatical and spelling errors, along with his speaking style and content, reinforce the image of the former president as “a man of the people” and “a knight against global powers.” This strategy has allowed Trump to gain unique visibility and forge a deeper connection with his supporters.
Consequently, Trump’s biggest challenge in the elections is convincing voters who identify as independent or are equidistant from both Biden and Trump. Americans identify as 29% Democrat, 29% Republican, and 40% independent. Support from independent voters is crucial for both party candidates. According to a YouGov poll, 48% of voters who identify as independent believe Trump is guilty, while 26% think he is not. Voters may be reluctant to vote for a presidential candidate who has been convicted in a criminal case. Additionally, liberals who would not vote for Biden or those considering voting for a third candidate like Kennedy might choose Biden over Trump as the “lesser of two evils.”
Political engagement and polarization among voters are expected to continue increasing until November 5, leading to what is likely to be the highest turnout election in American history.
Trump continues to be a very polarizing personality. In July, the potential consequences of Trump’s conviction, such as his ability to dismiss two federal cases accusing him of attempting to overturn the 2020 election illegally and misusing classified documents after leaving office in 2021, or conversely, facing a potential impeachment process if elected president again, could dominate the public discourse in the coming days. This position could further divide voters, with Trump supporters becoming increasingly marginalized.
Trump’s legal issues aside, a key factor underlying all this political polarization is what Trump often refers to as the “establishment” or “deep state.” In the post-Trump era, especially with regard to America’s resurgence in global leadership, such as in the course of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the country may not want to entrust someone who makes daily decisions and occasionally uses sharp rhetoric, sometimes incompatible with diplomatic norms, to damage bilateral relations with capital groups or allied countries.
However, at this point, continuing with Biden to sustain the policies of the ‘deep state’ focus again leads to an absurd deadlock. Besides his elderly and sickly appearance, the role of the Biden administration in the genocide that Israel has committed against the Palestinians is a significant factor in tarnishing the global reputation of the United States. The fact that the other candidate, Trump, can remain on the political stage despite his legal troubles demonstrates the enduring power of populism in American politics. Trumpism has become a movement that challenges justice and traditional governance, resonating with many Americans on an emotional and subconscious level.
In the end, Americans will choose between these two candidates. This situation challenges the fundamental principles of American democracy and emphasizes the necessity of reassessing the system’s integrity.