At the instruction of Joe Biden, the 46-page National Security Memorandum report (NSM-20) was prepared by the Department of State and presented to Congress on May 10, 2024. The report highlights a contradiction regarding Washington’s continuous military aid to Israel despite Israel acknowledging international law violations in Gaza.
The report notes that the assessment of Israel’s military operations in Gaza violating international law is deemed “reasonable.” However, it also states that concrete evidence of Israel breaching U.S. arms agreements during wartime conditions could not be found. Additionally, it mentions that Israel’s assurances regarding the lawful use of arms are “credible and reliable.” This statement allows for the continuation of U.S. military aid to Israel.
Assessing the U.S. military aid policy toward Israel requires understanding the balance between U.S. foreign policy guiding principles and realpolitik. The report’s contradictions actually reflect how the United States’ leadership walks on a tightrope, trying to reconcile clashing domestic and foreign policy considerations, an odyssey filled with obstacles.
Biden is attempting to tread a delicate line regarding Israel’s conflict in Gaza. Facing a tough re-election campaign against Donald Trump, who criticized Biden for his hesitancy to support Israel when needed, Biden finds himself caught between the demands of many Democrats to cut off arms shipments to Israel and the condemnations from Republicans about his alleged reluctance to support Israel.
Polls also underscore this dilemma. An Economist/YouGov poll shows that a clear majority of the American public sympathizes more with Israel (32%) than with the Palestinians (15%). However, according to the poll, the situation is reversed among adults under 30, Democrats, and African Americans. Another YouGov poll, which reveals public opinion on pro-Palestinian university protests, indicates that 46% of Democrats support these actions.
In this context, the statement in the NSM-20 report that “Israel has taken action to improve aid distribution since President Biden warned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a phone call at the beginning of last month that Washington would partially halt arms supplies if the humanitarian situation did not improve” can be interpreted as President Biden’s move aimed at addressing the concerns of Democratic voters who are worried about the situation in Palestine.
Last week’s reports in the media about the Biden administration halting a shipment of 3,500 bombs to Israel due to threats of attacks on Rafah can indeed be perceived as another move by the administration to condition military aid to Israel. This action could be seen as a step aimed at addressing the concerns of Democratic voters regarding the situation in the region.
One of Biden’s challenges in U.S. domestic politics is not only the difference in views between Republican and Democratic voters but also the influence of the pro-Israel lobby on the country’s internal dynamics.
During the Cold War era, Israel was perceived as a balancing factor against Soviet influence in the Middle East and was considered one of the main allies of the United States in the region. Military aid to Israel held strategic importance during this period.
However, in the post-Cold War era, U.S. Middle East policies shifted, and support for Israel began to be influenced more by domestic politics and lobbying rather than strategic interests. The fear of backlash from such influential and financially powerful interest groups usually steers foreign policy towards pragmatic realpolitik, often disregarding moral considerations.
Moreover, inconsistencies can be observed in the approach of the United States when similar violations of international law are concerned. For instance, in 2021, President Biden indefinitely paused a $760 million arms sale of precision-guided munitions to Saudi Arabia with the aim of reducing violence in Yemen.
A similar observation can be made when strategic foes are concerned. Despite Biden’s prioritization of Russia in the short term and China in the long term as strategic threats, both countries were relegated to the backburner after October 7th. While the Biden Administration has some issues with the Netanyahu government, these are related more to the form than the essence of the onslaught on Gaza.
Nevertheless, as it is an election year, these frictions made their way to domestic politics. In this context, the priorities of the Biden administration clash with those of the Republicans who hold the majority in Congress. Biden finds himself in a position where, in order to garner support from Republican members of the House, particularly when it comes to the aid for Ukraine, he needed to beef up the aid package to Israel.
In sum, the Biden administration’s acknowledgement of Israel’s violations of international law while simultaneously continuing military aid encapsulates the complex interaction between geopolitical interests, legal considerations, and moral dilemmas entangling U.S. statecraft. While strategic imperatives drive the ongoing support for Israel, the erosion of the Jewish State’s moral authority and its genocidal policies undermine the values and principles claimed by the United States and will oblige Washington to recalibrate its approach eventually.