This Policy Outlook examines the potential implications of a second Trump presidency on U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East, particularly its impact on regional peace and stability. The analysis draws on the policies implemented during the first Trump administration (2017–2021), policy recommendations articulated in the Project 2025 policy framework—designed as a roadmap for a prospective Republican administration—and the profiles of key personnel expected to shape decision-making based on pre-election rhetoric and post-election plans. The findings suggest that a renewed administration will likely maintain a pronounced pro-Israel orientation at the expense of Palestinians. Such a trajectory could further erode the viability of a two-state solution, exacerbating instability and diminishing prospects for lasting peace in the region.
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